Greg Secker - Global Market Update » UK Economy http://www.gregsecker.net Greg Secker gives his lowdown on the Global Market, Knowledge to Action Ltd Wed, 20 Jul 2011 12:24:52 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 en hourly 1 UK Economy http://www.gregsecker.net/index.php/2006/09/29/uk-economy-12/ http://www.gregsecker.net/index.php/2006/09/29/uk-economy-12/#comments Fri, 29 Sep 2006 08:17:50 +0000 Greg http://www.gregsecker.net/index.php/archives/58
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  • Interest rates – remain at 4.75%. The next MPC decision will be on October 6.
  • CPI – remains at 2.5%. The next inflation report will be on October 17.
  • Consumer Confidence - remains at -8 . The next consumer confidence report will be on September 29.
  • UK Manufacturers are worried about higher energy prices, having seen their costs jump by at least 30% in the last year
  • UK personal unsecured debt is almost twice that of other Western European economies, with the average person owing £3,175.
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  • Interest rates – the decision to hold interest rates at 4.75% was backed by all 8 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
    • However the MPC was concerned that increased inflation could lead to bigger wage demands.
    • Many analysts expect the bank to raise interest rates again by the end of this year
    • Consumer spending is holding up well after improving in Q2 and the housing market remains buoyant
  • Retail Sales remained steady in August with shoppers apparently undeterred by last month’s rate hike
    • Sales rose 0.3% in August taking annual growth to 4.3%
  • Unemployment at a 6 year high in July (1.7m)
    • Benefit claims fell by 3,900 in August
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  • Manufacturing – manufacturing activity in the UK expanded at a slower rate in August with weaker exports cooling growth.
  • Service Sector – UK service sector growth slowed in August, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will leave the interest rate at 4.75% when the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets this week..
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  • Retail sales - Sales for August grew at fastest rate for 18 months
  • Consumer Confidence – Consumer confidence survey for August due out tomorrow.
  • Inflation – Inflation (2.4%) remains above target (2.0%) due to higher prices for oil and food and higher university fees.
  • Interest rates – Next interest rate decision due on September 7th – no change expected.
 
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  • Inflation
    • Consumer Price Index fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in June – still well above the Government’s 2% target.
  • Unemployment
    • The UK jobless rate continues to rise with the number of people out of work increasing by 92,000 to 1.68million between April and June.
 
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  • UK interest rates raised to 4.75%
    • The Bank of England increased rates by a quarter of a percent to 4.75% in an effort to keep inflation in check.
  • Inflation
    • Consumer Price Index rose to 2.5% from 2.2% in May – well above the Government’s 2% target.
  • Consumer Confidence
    • GFK NOP’s Consumer Confidence headline index has remained at the same level as last month at -4.
  • Fall in oil production hits Industrial Output
    • Industrial Production in the UK unexpectedly contracted in June after a sharp fall in output in the energy sector, according to official figures released Monday
    • Forecasts were for an increase of 0.2%, but the actual result was a fall of 0.1%.

    House prices up 7.7% says Land Registry .

    • House prices in England and Wales were 7.7% higher in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2005, according to a report by the Land Registry published on Tuesday.
 
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  • UK house prices rise
  • Pension gap still high
  • Bad debt affects Lloyds TSB profit
  • Interest rates remain unchanged at 4.5%
  • Inflation up from 2.2% to 2.5%
  • Consumer confidence remains at -4
   
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The EU and US are blaming each other for the deadlock in the World Trade talks. WTO head says they are merely ’stalled’ and not collapsed.

The talks are aimed at reaching agreement over agricultural subsidies.

  • The US claim that the EU will not open up it’s markets.
  • Europe blamed US inflexiblity
  • If talks remained deadlocked or fail completely, it may result in higher prices for Europe.
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  • Bank of England voted unaimously to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.5%
  • This is despite the CPI figures rising to 2.5% in June from 2.2% in May. Highest since September 2005. The target is still 2%.
  • Rising oil prices have also failed to shift interest rates upwards
  • Subdued wage inflation has also cooled the need to increase rates.
  • Consumer Confidence rose by 1point to -4.
 
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Mortgage debt has gone through the £1 trillion level, according to figures from the Bank of England (BOE). An extra £9.3bn was borrowed to buy homes in May, increasing outstanding mortgage debt to £1.007 trillion. the value of un-mortgaged property across the UK is about £3.6 trillion which put’s it in perspective.The Government have announced that new jobs created by inward investment to the UK have fallen 14% in the past year. This reflects rivalry from France and new EU member states in central and Eastern Europe in attracting investment.
 
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