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  • Archive for November, 2009

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.30

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares ended up 1.2 percent at 999.59 points following a 3.3 percent fall on Thursday, which was it’s biggest daily decline in seven months. Across Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 ended the day 1 percent higher; Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC-40 rose 1.3 and 1.2 percent, respectively. U.S. stock index futures were sharply lower on Friday, a day after markets were shut for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The benchmark Nikkei climbed 264.03 points to 9,345.55. It shed 3.2 percent on Friday to a four-month closing low, marking its fifth straight week of losses. The Topix advanced 3.6 percent to 839.94.

    The European Union business lobby, yesterday called on the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to speed up negotiations. European businesses were getting frustrated over the slow progress in the Doha Round of Trade talks and Business Europe. The United Arab Emirates’ central bank has issued emergency credit facilities to banks in the region amid mounting fears that Dubai’s debt crisis would filter through to the rest of the Middle East. Yesterday, the bank issued a statement, saying it “stands behind local and foreign banks operating in the country” and would offer them a special additional liquidity facility. Iran defied heads of state last night, as it announced plans to build 10 new nuclear plants. Tehran said, in the next two months the Iranian nuclear agency will start work on five uranium enrichment sites, with five more to be set up at a later date. According to the Nomura/¬JMMA Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released today Japanese manufacturing fell to a four-month low in November. Chinese premier Wen Jiabao yesterday restated the country’s long-standing position that the yuan currency’s exchange rate should be kept at a reasonable, balanced level.

    Due for release today is the AUD HIA New Home Sales, GBP Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, JPY Housing Starts, EUR French Producer Prices, GBP Mortgage Approvals, GBP Net Consumer Credit, GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings, EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index, CAD Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized, CAD Gross Domestic Product.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.27

    European stock index futures pointed to a sharply lower open on Friday, following the previous session’s 3.3 percent sell-off, due to mounting fears over Dubai’s debt woes. Futures for the DJ Euro Stoxx STXEc1, for Germany’s DAX FDXc1 and for France’s CAC FCEc1 were down 1.6-2.0 percent. Futures on the U.S. S&P 500 SPc1 tumbled more than 3 percent on Friday, extending losses after Dubai’s decision to suspend billions in dollars of debt repayments from two flagship companies stoked investor fears of a hefty default. The benchmark Nikkei fell 3.2 percent or 301.72 points to 9,081.52, coming within a breath of its July low of 9,050. The Topix lost 2.2 percent to 811.01.

    Growth of broad money in the Eurozone fell sharply in October to a low of 0.3 per cent year-on-year, however last month lending to non-financial firms remained in negative territory. In September base effects saw private sector lending growth fall to -0.8 per cent from -0.3 per cent, driven by the steep fall in lending to non-financial firms of -1.2 per cent from -0.2 per cent. Yesterday, deepening fears over Dubai’s debt problems shook European stock markets, with the FTSE 100 index suffering its worst one-day loss since March. On Friday US retailers will unleash a barrage of post-Thanksgiving holiday shopping promotions, the National Retail Federation is expecting 134m Americans to head for the stores. Yesterday, the Bank of China signed an £86m deal for the prestigious City building One Lothbury. Japan’s Prime Minister has warned that his country risks falling into a “double-dip” recession. Due to the rush by retails investors to gold, the US government has suspended sales of the world’s most popular bullion. The shortage of the US Mint of Eagle coin is the latest sign of investors seeking a safe haven into bullion as the value of the US dollar remains uncertain.

    Due for release today is the CHF KOF Economic Barometer and the CAD Current Account.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.25

    The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares provisionally closed 0.6 percent lower at 1,017.87 points after rising to a high of 1,025.17 earlier in the session. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 17.24 points, or 0.16 percent, to end at 10,433.71. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped just 0.59 of a point, or 0.05 percent, to 1,105.65. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.83 points, or 0.31 percent, to 2,169.18. The benchmark Nikkei gained 40.06 points to 9,441.64 after earlier falling as low as 9,366.33, its lowest level since mid-July. The Topix added 0.5 percent to 833.29.

    Yesterday, the European Commission closed antitrust proceedings against Qualcomm. Yesterday, a survey showed a rise in output helped German manufacturing activity expand for the second month running in November, driving an increase in private sector growth in Europe’s largest economy. Amid new signs of the euro-zone economic recovery, Germany continues to prepare for a possible relapse as other governments plot exit strategies. China’s largest listed 11 banks are seeking to raise tens of billions of dollars in extra capital. Official statistics revealed the world’s biggest economy grew by less than originally thought in the third quarter; America’s Federal Reserve upped its forecast for economic growth next year to a range of 2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent as. According to official figures released yesterday, the US economy grew by 2.8 per cent between July and September.

    Due for release today there is the EUR German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey, GBP Gross Domestic Product, GBP Private Consumption, GBP Government Spending, GBP Exports, GBP Imports and GBP Index of Services, USD Durables Ex Transportation, USD Personal Spending, USD Personal Consumption Expenditure and USD New Home Sales.

     By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.24

    European shares surged 2.1 percent on Monday, with better-than-expected U.S. housing data boosting optimism about the recovery. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 132.79 points, or 1.29 percent, to end at 10,450.95. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 14.86 points, or 1.36 percent, to 1,106.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 29.97 points, or 1.40 percent, to close at 2,176.01. The benchmark Nikkei fell 1 percent to 9,401.58, its lowest finish since July 17. The broader Topix declined 1.1 percent to 829.22.

    In November, the Eurozone economic activity rose at its fastest pace for two years, raising hopes that the economic recovery is underway. The data shows the Eurozone economy made further progress after emerging from its worst ever recession in the third quarter. THE interest rate on US Treasury bills has dropped below zero in a scenario last seen in 1938, leaving investors in the strange position of paying the government for the privilege of lending it money. In October, sales numbers for previously owned homes in the US jumped more than 10 per cent.

    Due for release today is the JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Report, CHF UBS Consumption Indicator, EUR German Gross Domestic Product, EUR German Private Consumption, EUR German IFO – Expectations, EUR German IFO – Business Climate, EUR German IFO- Current Assessment.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.20

    The Dax closed 85 points lower at 5,702, the Cac lost 67 points to 3,760 and the Swiss Market index shed 82 points to close at 6,286. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 93.87 points, to end at 10,332.44. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 14.90 points, to 1,094.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 36.32 points, or 1.66 percent, to 2,156.82. The Nikkei fell 51.79 points to a four-month closing low of 9,497.68. The Topix index edged up 0.1 percent to 838.71.

    Companies in Europe are setting increasingly ambitious growth targets for emerging markets, three of the continents biggest names aiming to source half their revenues from them within six years. European Union leaders on Thursday night awarded two of its top jobs to politicians relatively unknown on the international stage, after almost a decade of wrangling over how to project Europe’s global presence. At a Brussels summit the EU picked consensus builders rather than star names, choosing Herman Van Rompuy, Belgium’s centre-right prime minister, over Tony Blair as the EU’s first full-time president, the FT reports.

    Due for release today is the JPY Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, NZD Credit Card Spending and NZD Credit Card Spending.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.19

    The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 11.11 points, to 10,426.31. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dipped just 0.52 of a point, to finish at 1,109.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 10.64 points, or 0.48 percent, to end at 2,193.14. The Nikkei fell earlier to a four-month intraday low of 9,496.07. The Topix index, which broke below its 200-day moving average last week.

    Yesterday, EU authorities approved plans by three major European banks to sell chunks of their operations in return for state aid, marking the latest regulatory-enforced financial break-ups. Yesterday, US gold futures passed the $1,153 mark for the first time as investors piled into precious metals as an alternative to the weaker US dollars. Silver, platinum and palladium reached their highest prices in at least 14 months. President Barack Obama has warned that the US economy may slip into a “double-dip recession” unless urgent steps are taken to control government borrowing. Obama said his administration face difficulties whilst trying to encourage job creation while reducing the soaring budget deficit. Construction of new homes in the United States hit a six month low in October, providing more evidence of the economy’s sluggish recovery.

    Due for release today is the AUD Average Weekly Wages, AUD Average Weekly Wages, JPY All Industry Activity Index, CHF Trade Balance, GBP Public Finances, GBP Retail Sales, GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing, GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.18

    European equities were set to open higher Today, with investors waiting for minutes from the Bank of England and macro-economic data from the U S. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 30.46 points, to close at 10,437.42. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose up 1.02 points, or 0.09 percent, to 1,110.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 5.93 points, or 0.27 percent, to 2,203.78. The benchmark Nikkei shed 53.13 points to 9,676.80. The Topix lost 0.8 percent to 850.06, its lowest close since May.

    US President Barack Obama is visiting The Great Wall of China today –as his tour of the region ends it seems the stumbling block of China’s currency will be just as tough to surmount. In September, the Eurozone unexpectedly posted a trade surplus, with exports expanding by a healthy 5.5 per cent on the previous month. Over the third quarter as a whole, exports rose by 3.7 per cent, which was the first quarterly rise since the second quarter of 2008. Yesterday, figures for October showed that America’s recovery in industrial production may be loosing momentum. Activity only rose 0.1 per cent on the month, which was entirely down to 1.6 per cent rise in utilities output. The September figure was also revised lower.

    Due for release today there is the GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes, EUR Euro-Zone construction output, GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Total, CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index, USD Consumer Price Index and USD Consumer Price Index and  USD Housing Starts.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.17

    Today financial bookmakers expect the leading European indexes to fall, as a dip in oil and metal prices prompt investors to book profits after stocks hit a 13-month closing high in the previous session. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 136.49 points, to 10,406.96. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 15.82 points, or 1.45 percent, to 1,109.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 29.97 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,197.85. The Nikkei slipped 61.25 points to 9,729.93, its lowest close in nearly two weeks. The Topix fell 0.4 percent to 857.00

    According to new figures, top European firms are underestimating their pension obligations by €300bn (£270bn). Yesterday, data confirmed, that cheaper food and fuel pulled down the eurozone consumer price index in October for a fifth month running in annual terms. Ben Bernanke, commented on the direction of the US dollar last night, saying he was “attentive” to the currency’s ongoing slide. Bernanke’s comments were scrutinised across global markets, as he does not normally comment on the direction of the US dollar. The US dollar has dropped 13 per cent against the pound so far this year. Last night Gold surged to a new record last night, with gold futures rising to $1,144.20 (£679.50) an ounce. Last Month American retail sales grew more than expected as vehicle purchases bounced back, but non-auto sales rose modestly. Yesterday, other data showed New York state manufacturing activity slowed in November for the first time in four months.

    Due for release today is the CHF Retail Sales, GBP Core Consumer Price Index, GBP Consumer Price Index, USD Producer Price Index, USD Producer Price Index, USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows and USD Industrial Production.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.16

    The Dow Jones industrial average added 73.00 points, or 0.72 percent, to end at 0,270.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 6.24 points, or 0.57 percent, to 1,093.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 18.86 points, or 0.88 percent, to close 2,167.88. Financial bookmakers expected the leading European stock indexes rise on Monday, extending last week’s gains. In moderate trade the benchmark Nikkei gained 20.87 points to 9,791.18. The Topix lost 0.7 percent to 860.42.

    Yesterday, Obama’s administration argued against plans proposed by Chris Dodd, the Senate banking committee chairman, to merge banking regulators into one. From July to September Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew a larger-than-expected 1.2 per cent, as the previous Liberal Democratic administration’s stimulus boosted consumer spending, government data showed today. Up to six companies will try to go public this week, which could be the US’s busiest week of the year for initial public offerings. A record number of US companies beat earnings expectations in the third quarter, however investors were disappointed to learn that a big portion of their profits came from cost-cutting.

    Due for release today is the GBP Rightmove House Prices, GBP Rightmove House Prices, USD Advanced Retail Sales, CAD Manufacturing Shipments, USD Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas.

    By Greg Secker

    Morning Call by Greg Secker


    2009 - 11.13

    The Dow Jones industrial average fell 93.79 points, to 10,197.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 11.27 points, to 1,087.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 17.88 points, or 0.83 percent, to 2,149.02. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares ended up 0.1 percent at 1,014.91 points, the highest close since Oct. 21. The index is up 22 percent in 2009 and has surged 57 percent since hitting a record low in March. The Nikkei lost 0.2 percent on the week for its third straight week of losses, the first such negative stretch since the three weeks end Oct. 2. In thin trade, it lost 34.18 points on the day to close at 9,770.31.The Topix fell 0.1 percent to 866.80.

    Eurozone industrial production rose again in September by 0.3 per cent on the previous month, raising hopes that tomorrow’s third quarter GDP figures could see strong gains. The rise meant that output in the three months to September was 2.2 per cent higher on the previous quarter. Yesterday, the European Union introduced radical new accounting rules for banks and insurers across the world, except in the US and Brussels. To cover the cost of rising banking failures, US banks are to pay $45bn (£27bn) to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC). In the US the demand for new home loans fell to a nine year low but the number of US mortgage applications went up last week as lower fixed rates increased the call for refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association has stated, that an average 30-year mortgage rates fell 0.07 percentage point to 4.9 per cent in the week ended November 6, making a new run toward the record low of 4.61 percent set in March.

    Due for release today is the JPY Industrial Production, EUR German Gross Domestic Product, EUR French Gross Domestic Product, EUR French Gross Domestic Product, EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product, EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product, USD Trade Balance, USD Import Price Index.

    By Greg Secker