Greg Secker – Global Market Update

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed up 53 points to close at 4,294. The index gained more than 50 points during the day through an ascending triangle on the 5-min chart, with most of the gains occurring shortly after Wall Street opened. The Dow closed yesterday up 90 points at 8,529. The index remains buoyant and is unable to break down through 4,200. Forex news:  Today is the end of the month and we are placing no new trades.  The dollar once again was strong on Monday, mainly due to the fact that Chinese officials have announced yesterday that China is not thinking alternative currencies for now and they will stick to the dollar despite all the rumors and speculations of market participants that the country is looking for a way out.  GBP high news at 9:30am with Current account release and CAD high news at 1:30pm with GDP release.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 12 points at 4,241. On Friday the Dow fell 34.01 points (0.4 %) to 8,438.39. The S&P 500 index fell 1.36 (0.2%) to 918.90. Technology stocks did a little better so the Nasdaq rose 8.68 (0.5%) to 1,838.22 led by Palm Inc the smart phone maker. The US markets were largely unaffected by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index which rose unexpectedly on Friday but was balanced out by the news that US citizens have increased their savings sharply which in the short term will not support hopes for GDP growth. On the one hand the market may have pushed up too quickly since March (35.8% rally in the S&P 500 from a 12-year low on March 9) and in fact an economic recovery may be further away than hoped initially.  However, keep in mind that Tuesday is the end of the quarter; portfolio and fund managers may be keen to take the stock markets higher to bolster their performance numbers for the quarter. Forex news:  No high news today.  The British Pound stuck to its range for another week, failing to breach the magical 1.6660 line. This week’s key British events: Nationwide HPI, Current Account, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and American Non-Farm Payrolls could well shake the Pound.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed down 27 points at 4,252 continuing the uncertain week. A mild support level is forming at 4,420, and resistance is being encountered at 4,300. It will be interesting to see if this level of resistance holds because it has proved to be a good level of support over recent weeks. Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the Dow Jones rose 172.54 points (2.1%). The S&P 500 index rose 19.32 points (2.1%) to 920.26.  Positive US corporate news in the Housebuilding and Retail sectors helped traders overlook the unexpected increases in US unemployment benefit claimants. Investors have been dissecting economic and corporate data for signs of whether the economy is starting to recover or whether a stock market rally that began in March was premature. There seems to be a strong underlying sentiment in the market. In the Forex market, huge volume makes even big interventions very hard. The SNB’s (CHF) intervention had a short lived effect last time, and this time is no different – the correction will come. No high news today. Enjoy!

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed down just 4 points at 4,230 and forming a High-Test bar. Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the Dow Jones fell 16.10 points (or 0.2%) to 8,322.91. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.06 (0.2%), to 895.10, and the Nasdaq fell 1.27 points (0.1 percent) to 1,764.92. The market is nervous and watching closely at all US Govt debt auctions looking for signs that the market appetite for US Government debt is waning. Another $104 billion is expected to be auctioned this week. Also watch out for the Feds interest rate decision (expected to remain unchanged), but more importantly, the Feds economic assessment that accompanies the rate decision. Questions about future inflation also still loom. Big day today in the forex market – the FOMC Statement is made. What will Bernanke hint about future interest rates? Apart from tensions towards the statement, the market will move on other important figures.  At 11am GBP high news with CBI realized sales followed by Inflation report hearings at 2:30pm and BOE Gov King speaks at 3:45pm.  Then at 3pm USD New home sales and at 7:15pm FOMC statement and federal funds rate.  If you are in live position at that time, be wary of high volatility.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 66 points at 4,345. Positive news from the Mining Sector buoyed the index. More good news was released over the weekend so the FTSE may rally today. On Friday the Dow Jones fell 15.87 (0.2 %) to 8,539.73, with just over half of its 30 stocks posting losses. The S&P 500 index rose 2.86 (0.3%) to 921.23 and the Nasdaq gained 19.75 (1.1%) to 1,827.47. The stock market consensus seems to be one of caution and consolidation rather than a continuing rally this summer. All the major indexes closed the week down on Friday for the first time since the second week of May.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed down 50 points at 4,279 following a heavy day of selling in the mining sector. The Dow closed 108 points at 8,505 gaining support from 8,500. In Forex news there is another busy day in a busy week: A new Libor Rate in Switzerland at 8:30am, Retail Sales for GBP at 9.30am, Canadian CPI at 12pm and American Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm are the highlights of today. Watch out for high volatility.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed up just 2.5 points at 4,328 and is now looking to test the support levels around 4,300 and the 50ema. The Dow closed down 108 points at 8.504 following heavy falls on Monday. Futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street, so it could be an interesting day. Volume has been tailing off over recent weeks but has picked up slightly over the last couple of days. American CPI, Swiss Retail Sales and British employment figures are the highlights of today. In addition, Ben Bernanke will speak at 2pm and may hint something on his speech in Washington regarding interest rates, so watch out for reaction.  At 9:30am GBP high news followed by USD Core CPI at 13:30pm. Happy trading!

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed down 115 points (2.61%) at 4,326, and the DAX fell 179 points (3.54%) to close at 4,889. All the other major global indices also fell during the heavy selling session as bad economic news was released in the US. The Dow Jones industrials fell 187 points on Monday, their biggest drop since 20 April. Ahead of Monday’s slide, the S&P 500 had jumped 39.9 percent since falling to a 12-year low on 9 March. The unease about the economy’s recovery have kept stocks from rising as quickly in recent weeks as they did in March and April.  The Dow and the S&P 500 index are up 12 of the past 14 weeks, and the last four straight weeks.  Investors have been betting on an economic recovery but questions about how long that might take are stalling the rally.  Questions remain about whether unemployment, still-weak home prices and inflation will trip up resurgence in the economy. Forex news:  Alexei Kudrin, Russia’s Finance Minister gave the dollar some strong back wind, by saying that the dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency. This policy shift strengthened the dollar ahead of the TIC Long-Term Purchases.  In today’s high news, we start with GBP CPI at 9:30am. Then at 10am, EUR high news with German Zew economic sentiment and finally at 1:30 USD building permits.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 19 points (0.45%) at 4,442 marking the end of another mixed week. The index is slowly snaking its way up towards 4,500 and the level of resistance at 4,520, and is gaining support from the 20ema. On Friday the Dow Jones rose a modest 28 points (0.3%), to 8,799 making this its highest close since 6th January. The recent 85-day Bull Run in US stock markets may have further to run but for now is in pause. The market is not responding to positive economic news in the same way that it was only a few months ago and the rally isn’t likely to restart until traders have a better sense of what will happen with interest rates (and inflation), the USD, corporate profits and particularly the banking sector. Today’s FX highlights are American TIC Long-Term Purchases at 2pm. TIC Long-Term Purchases show where the money is going – into the use or outside. The figure is expected to stand at 58.1 billion. Any surprise will shake the greenback across the board. Swiss PPI is predicted to rise by 0.1% after falling last time. The Swiss hope for some rise in prices. This is a critical week for the Swiss Franc. Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber, a senior member of the ECB, will speak today. Since no other European indicators are published today, his words could well move the EUR/USD.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE 100 closed up 25 points (0.57%) at 4,461. The Dow Jones rose 31.90 (0.37%) to 8,770.92. The S&P 500 rose 5.73 (0.61%) to 944.88, while the Nasdaq rose 9.29 (0.50%) to 1,862.37. It’s a relatively quiet Friday this time. How will the greenback close the week? ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, will talk about the European economy in two speeches in Bulgaria. EUR/USD moved both ways this week. How will it end the week? The BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher and BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale will both speak throughout the day. How will the Pound react? In the US, Import Prices are predicted to rise by 1.3%. The highly regarded University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to show a continuing improvement. The preliminary figure is predicted to rise to 69.5 points, a number not seen for a long time. There is no high news today.