Greg Secker – Global Market Update

Britain’s FTSE 100 tumbled 135 points to close at 3762 on Monday. According to financial bookmakers, the
index is seen opening 16-25 points higher on Tuesday, clawing back some of the previous session’s sharp losses as crude prices bounced and traded near $49 a barrel. A survey showed British consumers grew less gloomy in March as lower mortgage repayments increased disposable income. In Asia, Japanese unemployment rose to a three-year high in February underlining government urgency to come up with fresh stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy.

In Wall Street, stocks tumble on renewed fears of the strength of the banking and auto sectors; General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner forced to resign as a codition of receiving new bailout funding from the government; and Netflix raises its rental rates for Blu-Ray customers.

Forex News:  10am – Euro CPI Flash estimated @ 0.7%, previous @ 1.2%
At 1:30pm we have Canadian news GDP month on month forecasted better than previous @ 0.6%

Britain’s FTSE 100 index is seen opening 30-57 points lower on Monday, according to financial bookmakers, reflecting weak showings on Wall Street and in Asia and caution ahead of this week’s G20 summit. The UK blue-chip index closed 26 points lower on Friday at 3,898. All eyes will be on the G20 meeting at London’s ExCel centre on Thursday. U.S. president Barack Obama said in an interview published in the Financial
Times on Sunday that he saw ‘glimmers of stabilization’ in some areas of the U.S. economy, including the domestic housing market. Obama told the newspaper he hoped G20 leaders would adopt a ‘robust approach to stimulus’ during their meeting and would take steps to deal with toxic assets in the banking sector.

Wall Street investors are looking to close out a surprisingly upbeat March on a high note and start off a make-it-or-break-it April on good terms as the spring rally hits some resistance. The week’s biggest economic news is the Labour Department’s March employment report. Employers are expected to have cut 656,000 jobs from their payrolls after cutting 651,000 in February. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have risen to 8.5% from 8.1% in February. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in the afternoon about the Fed’s balance sheet. Bernanke appears at the Richmond Fed’s credit markets symposium in North Carolina. A report is also due from the ISM on the services sector of the economy. The Dow closed at 7776.18 down 1.87%

There is little by way of Forex related news and releases today. In the UK we have Mortgage Approval figures and Net Lending to Individuals m/m – both are expected to show improvement. In Eurozone news, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is due to testify in Brussels on the economy before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

The FTSE 100 closed up 24 points yesterday at 3,925. The third reading of our fourth-quarter GDP is due out at 0930 this morning, and economists expect little or no change to the earlier estimate of a 1.5 percent contraction. It looks as if the key number of 4,000 provided resistance on Tuesday. The US personal consumption expenditure data is also due out at 1230 GMT which would be of interest to investors for further gauge of the state of the world’s largest economy. US stocks opened up on Thursday as reports on economic growth and Jobless claims came in roughly as forecast, while shares of Best Buy (BBY.N) jumped about 12 percent after its results beat expectations. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 89 points, or 1.15 Percent to 7,839. In Forex related news today UK Current Account figure due at 9.30 which is expected to improve significantly and would therefore be £ positive. In the US we have Core PCE Price Index m/m and Personal Spending m/m figures due. Both figures are expected to weaken. In Forex news yesterday saw the pound against the USD drop to 1.4538 after UK retails figures showed a 1.9% drop in consumption, in February bring to end 3 months of rises. Annualised gains of 2.5% are the lowest in 13 years.

Britain’s FTSE 100 index is seen opening 21 to 28 points higher on Thursday, according to financial bookmakers, ending a two-day losing run as U.S. and Asian stocks gained. The UK benchmark closed down 11.21 points at 3,900 on Wednesday. It is down 12 percent this year but remains about 12.7 percent higher than its low, hit on March 9. Amidst the downtrend of the economy, retailers are one of the better performers among FTSE 350 sub sectors this year, On the economic front, UK retail sales data is due out at 0930 GMT. The U.S. government will propose tough new financial rules on Thursday as part of its measure to revive the economy and prevent excessive risk-taking that nearly wrecked its banks and set off a world financial crisis.Wall Street managed a moderate gain Wednesday after an attack of nerves had investors
giving back a big early advance and then barreling back into the market right before the
close. Opening the day at 7659.81 and closing at 7749.81. The day shows how fragile Wall Street remains despite a two-week rally.
The market was pulled in different directions by both good and bad news on the economy
that led to choppy trading which may well be the pattern for stocks going forward. In Forex news, yesterday saw better than expected figures released in the US with Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales surprising the market.  Today at 9.30am GBP Retails Sales m/m are due for release which is expected to reduce to -0.3% highlighting the tough retail conditions. Then at 12.30pm the USD Unemployment Claims and then also the Final GDP q/q are due. Both are expected to confirm a dour outlook for the US economy.

The FTSE 100 closed lower yesterday by 41 points at 3911. This followed the shock release that UK annual inflation rate (CPI) rose to 3.2% last month.  Despite this rise, many economists are still predicting inflation to fall later in the year, with the possibility of deflation, which is massively damaging to the economy in the long term.  The DOW gave back 115 points of the large gains made Monday to close at 7660.   A pullback had been expected given these massive gains made on the news of government plans to remove bad loans from Bank’s balance sheets.  The market is now waiting for any further good news, otherwise further pullbacks are expected. In Forex news today the EUR sees the German Ifo Business Climate figure released at 9.00am. This is a business survey to rate the relative level of current business conditions and is considered leading indicator of economic health.  A relatively static result is expected.  Then at 11.00am the GBP CBI Realised Sales figures are due with a reduction to -35 expected. Then at 12.30pm we see the USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m with the expectation to see a modest improvement to -2.00%. Also, the    USD New Home Sales results are due at 2.00pm with the expectation of a further slow down to 302K.  Then later on into evening the NZD Current Account is released with improvement expected at -4.04B  

The FTSE closed up nearly 110 points yesterday as it raced up to hug onto the 50 day exponential moving average. The index closed at 3953, as markets across the globe soared in reaction to the U.S saying they will spend up to 1 trillion dollars on toxic assets. The financial and mining sectors were 2 of the best performers for the day. The S&P 500 and the Dow posted their biggest one-day percentage gains since late October after Wall Street finally got what it was asking for: relief for the battered banking sector and more data suggesting the housing market could be on the mend with the Dow rising nearly 500 points. U.S existing home sales came in at 4.72m, higher than the forecasted figure of 4.45m. In the foreign exchange another week has started with markets trading in positive territory. Asia ended the session profitably and Europe also ended up for the day! Market participants are in a euphoric mood due to President Obama’s new plan to buy up to a trillion dollars of bank’s distressed assets. Crucial week for this week’s dollar direction. High news today will be GBP CPI at 9:30am and Inflation report at 9:45am. In the US at 2pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.

The FTSE 100 ended slightly higher on Friday, rounding off a good week for the leading share index closing at 3842. Insurers continued their strong performance from previous days. They were led by Legal & General and Prudential. The Pru is being helped by stories that it’s new chief executive’s first job could be to break the life group up. HSBC and Barclays were among the worst performers after the former went ex-rights, and the latter saw Morgan Stanley cut its target price to 90p from 145p on fears the bank will need to raise capital soon. The Dow Jones fell 122 points to 7,278 after starting Friday mixed, stocks veered lower in the afternoon as financial stocks fell and investors collected profits from the advance that saw the Dow rise 14 percent over seven trading days. One reason for the market’s pause after such a big surge was that it ran out of upbeat economic and corporate news the past two days. Forex News: The EUR/USD consolidated gains on Friday following eight straight daily gains. The Pound has broken the 1.4450 resistance level on a bullish reaction after hitting 1.4395, and advances towards 1.4595 intra−day high. Existing home sales in the U.S high news today at 2pm expected to be slightly better than previous figures.

Britain’s FTSE 100 index is seen opening up 38-39 points on Thursday, as reported financial bookmakers, after Wall Street rose overnight on the Federal Reserve’s plans to buy bonds. The UK blue-chip index closed down 52.11 points on Wednesday pulled down by weakness in commodities and banks. Fuelled by federal chairman Ben S.Bernanke’s determination to avoid a repeat of the great Depression, U.S central bankers decided to buy as miuch as $300 billion worth of long term treasuries and expand purchases of mortgage-related debt to help ease credit market conditions in the latest action to lower borrowing costs. An easing of credit market strains would help business and consumer spending. Speculations by market analysts state that FTSE might well sail along with the other markets, and finish the week off on a strong note with a probable gain of 2 percent today. Wall street stocks turned mixed Wednesday as investors awaited details from the Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates.  By early afternoon, stocks pulled off their lows and struggled to move higher. The Fed is expected to leave rates at their historically low levels, but the market is anxious to see how the central bank assesses the economy in its statement accompanying the rate decision. Investors also want to know if the Fed has any further moves planned to help boost the economy. At Wednesday’s close of floor trading on the NYSE, the DOW was on 7486.58 with a gain of 90.88 points (1.23%) while the S&P finished on 794.35, up 29.11 points (2.09%).In Forex news yesterday the USD dollar dropped considerably across the board following the Federal  Reserve statement that it is buying up to $300 in longer term Treasuries and raising the size of lending programs already aimed at reducing mortgages rates by another $750 billion. In data releases today; at 1100am the CAD CPI m/m figure will be released with an expected rise to 0.2%. Then at 1230pm the USD Unemployment Claims of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first during the past week are due with an expected figure of 652K, which is comparable to previous recent weeks.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen opening 39-40 points higher on Wednesday as sentiment was boosted by an unexpected increase in U.S. housing on Tuesday. Investors will be watching UK employment data at 0930 GMT for more evidence on the extent of the recession and how badly it is affecting the UK economy. Focus also shifted to the outcome of a Fed meeting later in the day and whether economic conditions warrants additional policymaker action to boost lending.US Stocks surged on Tuesday as an unexpected leap in housing starts pushed Home Depot as well as other retailers up. U.S. crude oil futures saw a sharp 4 percent rise which helped boost energy shares. Chevron (CVX.N) shares rose 3.8 percent to $65.31 and ranked as the Dow’s top gainer. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 178.73 points, or 2.48 percent, to 7,395.70.EUR/USD has remained above 1.3000 during the whole session, trading from a 1.3000 low to a maximum level of 1.3070. At the moment, the Euro trades several pips below the 1.3070/95 resistance area (Feb 9 and 10 high), and, above here, the Euro would return to levels of late January. The GBP/USD has remained moving above 1.400 in a narrow range from 1.4025 to 1.4070. The USD/JPY has edged down from a maximum level of 98.80 to right below the 98.55 resistance level.

The FTSE 100 jumped almost 3 percent yesterday, building on last week’s rally, as Barclays delivered an upbeat assessment of its current trading. The index of blue-chip companies ended the day 110.31 points up at 3863.99 & showing a rise in six of the past seven trading days.
Barclays, the third-biggest UK bank, told investors that it had ‘enjoyed’ a strong start to the year and that it could raise billions of pounds through the sale of its iShares business. Among the other banks, Lloyds Banking Group rose more than 5 percent at one point but closed up just a fraction higher at 47.2p. Royal Bank of Scotland closed up almost 5 percent at 22.8p.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7217 on 3/16/09, as the stock market exploded higher in the morning but was weak in the last hour of trading. The Dow Jones Futures opened the day strong after Barclays ( BCS ) said they are having a great quarter. In currency-related data yesterday a number of USD data releases came in under expectations and in the Eurozone the rate of inflation y/y remained largely unchanged. The USD continued to lose ground against both the EUR and the Sterling amidst continued speculation that the worst of the banking crisis may be over and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s very positive market comments that the economy may begin to recover by end 2009.  Today we have Building Permit and m/m PPI figures from the US. The PPI is considered a leading indicator of inflation. In Europe the  
German ZEW Economic Sentiment figure will be released and is expected to fall further to -7.7.