Greg Secker – Global Market Update

At the close on Friday the FTSE finished the session down 43 points at

4,286 after another choppy day experiencing better than average volumes as more market makers down tools for the Christmas break. With no scheduled market moving news out today look to component and sentiment news to shape the direction that the remaining market makers take. In America on Friday a bumpy session saw the Dow Jones end down 25 points at 8,579. This again on the back of increased volume before the holiday season begins in earnest. As with the FTSE with no scheduled market moving news out today component and sentiment news amid reduced volumes is all there is to drive direction. Crude briefly dropped below $34 a barrel on Friday even after the record production cut from OPEC earlier this week, and this time the energy shares pulled back too. The current price for Oil is now $43.00 on the February contract after January’s contract closed on Friday. Gold is at $843.90. That’s it for now, good trading, and I will speak with you tomorrow.

The FTSE closed up 31 points at 4,309 yesterday having spent all but the first hour in a 60 point range after the news breaks brought information that largely matched expectation. With likelihood of a rise at the open due to Wall Street’s post FTSE close activity and then news breaks at 9.30 lead by the Bank of England minutes look to the 50 ema for a breach at around the 4,350 level which, if held, could signal sustainable upward direction. In America yesterday the Dow Jones surged almost 250 points after the Federal Reserve’s historic decision to further slash interest rates. The unprecedented move to lower its fed funds target rate to a range of 0 to 0.25 percent rather than a fixed point was a surprise and is only the first salvo in a range of tools at the Fed’s disposal that it has committed to use ensuring every effort is used to bolster the troubled economy. The industrial average had traded sideways until the news releases. Today with low level news at noon and the Current Account Balance figures at 1.30 pm a break of the 50 ema at around the 9,000 level, if held, could indicate a sustained upward move also for this index. Oil is currently at $44.25 and gold is at $880.60. That’s it for now, good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow. 

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE ended a meandering session just 2 points down from Friday’s close, at 4,277. Today, with the full impact of the Dow’s reactions to the weekend’s events coupled with Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index reports even with light volumes, a rough day is likely. In America yesterday the Dow Jones closed down 65 points at 8,564 after a choppy day’s trading in light volume, which is expected to remain in the last full week of trading ahead of the Christmas break, as this often skews the market. With fears easing over the carmakers this has given way to fears over the increasing list of companies exposed to the Madoff fund. Madoff, a well respected, former Chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, was arrested on Thursday for an alleged $50 bn fraud involving banks and other businesses both sides of the Atlantic. With a plethora of news breaks today including America’s Consumer Price index and Housing Starts at 1.30 pm and the Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision at 7.15 pm, widely expected to result in a cut, there will be plenty to react to throughout the day. Oil is currently at $44.50 and Gold is at $835.30. That’s it for now good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

Friday’s close on the FTSE found the index down 108 points at 4,280 after a massive opening fall on reaction to the Dow failing to rebound although the last half of the session made some attempt. Today with no scheduled news out save the Rightmove report showing a slowing in the decline of house prices look to component news and a lead from the Dow for direction. In America the Dow Jones showed resilience on Friday, rebounding from an early drop of 200 points as the Senate killed off the $14 bn Auto bailout package, to end up 64 points at 8,629, after the government said it would assist the big three carmakers. Many analysts believe Wall Street is growing more confident that the government’s steps to stimulate the economy, including its $700 billion bank bailout program, will work. Today with little scheduled news out look to component news for directional impetus. Oil is at $47.04 and Gold is at $831.50. That’s it for now, good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

The FTSE closed up 21 points at 4,388 after another choppy day of trading but has held above the 50 ema for the second day. Today with no scheduled major market news look to component news, a lead from the Dow and of course end of week position profit taking to provide directional impetus. Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, in America the Dow Jones ended the day down 196 points at 8,565, over further fears on the economy and that the automotive rescue plan looked increasingly threatened as opposition mounted. Today with a good number of news breaks out from 1.30 pm including Producer Price Index and Retail Sales figures, look to these and, as with the FTSE, end of week position profit taking to provide direction. Broadly, commodities increased, led by Oil currently at $47.98 up $4.46 and Gold up $17.80 at $826.60. That’s it for now, good trading, have a fabulous weekend and I will speak with you on Monday.

The FTSE shot up yesterday morning 220 points at the open in reaction to the Dow’s post London market close activity and therein dwarfed any response to the PPI figures. The index then fell back to trade in an 80 channel for the majority of the day and close just below the day’s high at 4,300, up 250 points on Monday’s finish. Today look for the break of the 50 moving average at around the 4,350 level which, if held, could indicate the decisive upward movement toward the aforementioned 4,650 point barrier. With the RICS Housing Market Report showing a glimmer of positivism but, with the potential that our Trade Balance reports out at 9.30, coupled with profit taking, may well see some of the gains diminish.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the Dow Jones rose 298 points to close at 8,934. Global markets have responded positively to Obama’s pledge to boost the American economy with the biggest Public Works package since the 1950’s. Look today for the break also of this index’s 50 moving average but be aware of the potential, as with the FTSE, for profit taking to wipe off some of the gains over the last two days. Oil is at $43.52 and Gold is at $771.70. That’s it for now, good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

On Friday the FTSE closed down 114 points to close at 4,049 registering a 60 point drop within 15 minutes at the break of the Non Farm Payroll report. This was followed by a matching rally and then further weakness to the close. The Dow Jones on the other hand fell from the open on the news but then staged a 500 point rally to the close, on the back of further positive indications that the Government will step in to help the economy, after the NFP results were so dire. This week with the newsbreaks broadly this side of the Atlantic in the first half and coming from America from midweek we can look forward today at the British Producer Price Index reports out at 9.30 am. Oil is at $42.00 and Gold is at $764.70. That’s it for now good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, a volatile session left the FTSE down 6 points at 4,163, after the Bank of England base rate cuts remained in line with expectation at home, seeing 2% in the for the first time since 1951 but in Europe the European Central Bank added an extra .25% to the anticipated reduction being shaved off rates there, to see a record .75% cut to 2.5%.  All this amid projections for the recession to continue throughout the Eurozone in 2009 and that further measures would be required to attempt the prevention of a worsening situation. With no news out today this side of the Atlantic, directional movement will be lead by America’s newsbreaks and end of week position profit taking here. Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, in the USA the Dow Jones fell 215 points to 8,376 on the back of deepening fears that General Motors may file for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch’s prediction that Oil will fall to $25 a barrel. Today with the Non Farm Payroll figures report leading the way on the news breaks and with the expectation that all these indicators will continue to paint a gloomy picture for the United States economy, look for further potential weakness to be displayed, particularly with end of week position profit taking being added to the portfolio of potentially negative factors. Oil is currently at $43.98 and Gold is at $766.00. That’s it for now, good trading, have a fabulous weekend and I will speak with you on Monday.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE ended the day up 47 points at 4,169 having been dragged aloft in the final two hours of trading by the Dow’s upward surge of 300 points from that index’s low. Today with the Bank of England Base Rate Decision released at noon, and with the expectation widely touted as a 1 % cut, look to this time for activity potentially giving the impetus for the break of the 4,200 level. In addition the European Central Bank’s decision out just 45 minutes later also has the expectation of a significant cut of 0.5%. In America yesterday, the Dow rose by 172 points from Tuesday’s close, largely on record mortgage applications, to finish the session at 8,591. Today with a raft of low level news out from 1.30 pm onwards look for further volatility ahead of tomorrow’s non farm payroll figures. Oil is currently trading at $46.87 and Gold is at $774.70. That’s it for now good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.

Yesterday, notes Mr Secker, the FTSE rose by 57 points to close at 4,122. Today, with little news out, look for the breaks of the 4,000 and the 4,200 levels for indications of decisive directional movement ahead of the Bank of England base rate decision tomorrow. The Dow Jones gained 270 points to close at 8,419 having ranged in a 300 point channel. Today watch for further volatility with a raft of low level news out from 12 noon onwards, with the breaks of 8,100 and 8,600 for indications of decisive directional movement ahead of the Non Farm Payroll report out on Friday. Oil is at $47.54 and Gold is at $778.70. That’s it for now, good trading and I will speak with you tomorrow.