The Traders’s Journal

Yesterday the FTSE closed down 106 points at 4,234, and fell heavily because of poor NFP figures. There is a support line forming at 4,215.The Dow closed down 225 points at 8,280 and is resting just above a support line forming at 8,240. The S&P closed down 27 points at 896 and closed under the 50ema. Forex news:  Unemployment in the Euro Zone and the US have reached a parity, both are now at 9.5%.  USD and JPY gained against major currencies yesterday, as weak job market data from the US and Europe led to increased investor risk aversion.  Key economic releases today, include the releases of service sector activity data from the UK at 9:30am.  Also today is a bank holiday in the US.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 91 points at 4,340 breaking through minor resistance. The price is now mid-way between the 2 major moving averages. The Dow closed up 57 points at 8,504 and in doing so closed above the key level of 8,500. The Dow is now starting to form a small consolidation between her major moving averages.Forex news:  USD is supported by comments from Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei, who stated that the dollar would “remain stable,” easing concern it will lose its reserve status.  Overall, high yielding and emerging market currencies are trading lower against the USD and JPY, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of US non-farm payroll data, resulting in higher demand for safe haven assets. At 12:45pm, EUR Minimum bid rate followed by ECB press conference at 1:30pm and the big one, Non Farm Payroll at 1:30pm.  We will  not place any trades today.

Yesterday the FTSE closed down 44 points at 4,249 and is looking like is forming in a little channel between 4,300 and 4,215. The Dow closed down 84 points at 8,446, gaining support from 8,400 and the 50ema. Forex news: In high news today GBP manufacturing PMI at 9:30am.  USD ADP Non-Farm employment change at 1:15pm and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3pm could create high volatility as preliminary results to Non-Farm payroll due to be released tomorrow, a day early as Friday is bank holiday in the US.  We will not place any trades today and tomorrow.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up 53 points to close at 4,294. The index gained more than 50 points during the day through an ascending triangle on the 5-min chart, with most of the gains occurring shortly after Wall Street opened. The Dow closed yesterday up 90 points at 8,529. The index remains buoyant and is unable to break down through 4,200. Forex news:  Today is the end of the month and we are placing no new trades.  The dollar once again was strong on Monday, mainly due to the fact that Chinese officials have announced yesterday that China is not thinking alternative currencies for now and they will stick to the dollar despite all the rumors and speculations of market participants that the country is looking for a way out.  GBP high news at 9:30am with Current account release and CAD high news at 1:30pm with GDP release.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed down 12 points at 4,241. On Friday the Dow fell 34.01 points (0.4 %) to 8,438.39. The S&P 500 index fell 1.36 (0.2%) to 918.90. Technology stocks did a little better so the Nasdaq rose 8.68 (0.5%) to 1,838.22 led by Palm Inc the smart phone maker. The US markets were largely unaffected by the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index which rose unexpectedly on Friday but was balanced out by the news that US citizens have increased their savings sharply which in the short term will not support hopes for GDP growth. On the one hand the market may have pushed up too quickly since March (35.8% rally in the S&P 500 from a 12-year low on March 9) and in fact an economic recovery may be further away than hoped initially.  However, keep in mind that Tuesday is the end of the quarter; portfolio and fund managers may be keen to take the stock markets higher to bolster their performance numbers for the quarter. Forex news:  No high news today.  The British Pound stuck to its range for another week, failing to breach the magical 1.6660 line. This week’s key British events: Nationwide HPI, Current Account, Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and American Non-Farm Payrolls could well shake the Pound.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 27 points at 4,252 continuing the uncertain week. A mild support level is forming at 4,420, and resistance is being encountered at 4,300. It will be interesting to see if this level of resistance holds because it has proved to be a good level of support over recent weeks. Yesterday the Dow Jones rose 172.54 points (2.1%). The S&P 500 index rose 19.32 points (2.1%) to 920.26.  Positive US corporate news in the Housebuilding and Retail sectors helped traders overlook the unexpected increases in US unemployment benefit claimants. Investors have been dissecting economic and corporate data for signs of whether the economy is starting to recover or whether a stock market rally that began in March was premature. There seems to be a strong underlying sentiment in the market. In the Forex market, huge volume makes even big interventions very hard. The SNB’s (CHF) intervention had a short lived effect last time, and this time is no different - the correction will come. No high news today. Enjoy!

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down just 4 points at 4,230 and forming a High-Test bar. Yesterday the Dow Jones fell 16.10 points (or 0.2%) to 8,322.91. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose 2.06 (0.2%), to 895.10, and the Nasdaq fell 1.27 points (0.1 percent) to 1,764.92. The market is nervous and watching closely at all US Govt debt auctions looking for signs that the market appetite for US Government debt is waning. Another $104 billion is expected to be auctioned this week. Also watch out for the Feds interest rate decision (expected to remain unchanged), but more importantly, the Feds economic assessment that accompanies the rate decision. Questions about future inflation also still loom. Big day today in the forex market - the FOMC Statement is made. What will Bernanke hint about future interest rates? Apart from tensions towards the statement, the market will move on other important figures.  At 11am GBP high news with CBI realized sales followed by Inflation report hearings at 2:30pm and BOE Gov King speaks at 3:45pm.  Then at 3pm USD New home sales and at 7:15pm FOMC statement and federal funds rate.  If you are in live position at that time, be wary of high volatility.

On Friday the FTSE 100 closed up 66 points at 4,345. Positive news from the Mining Sector buoyed the index. More good news was released over the weekend so the FTSE may rally today. On Friday the Dow Jones fell 15.87 (0.2 %) to 8,539.73, with just over half of its 30 stocks posting losses. The S&P 500 index rose 2.86 (0.3%) to 921.23 and the Nasdaq gained 19.75 (1.1%) to 1,827.47. The stock market consensus seems to be one of caution and consolidation rather than a continuing rally this summer. All the major indexes closed the week down on Friday for the first time since the second week of May.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed down 50 points at 4,279 following a heavy day of selling in the mining sector. The Dow closed 108 points at 8,505 gaining support from 8,500. In Forex news there is another busy day in a busy week: A new Libor Rate in Switzerland at 8:30am, Retail Sales for GBP at 9.30am, Canadian CPI at 12pm and American Unemployment Claims at 1:30pm are the highlights of today. Watch out for high volatility.

Yesterday the FTSE 100 closed up just 2.5 points at 4,328 and is now looking to test the support levels around 4,300 and the 50ema. The Dow closed down 108 points at 8.504 following heavy falls on Monday. Futures are pointing to a higher open on Wall Street, so it could be an interesting day. Volume has been tailing off over recent weeks but has picked up slightly over the last couple of days. American CPI, Swiss Retail Sales and British employment figures are the highlights of today. In addition, Ben Bernanke will speak at 2pm and may hint something on his speech in Washington regarding interest rates, so watch out for reaction.  At 9:30am GBP high news followed by USD Core CPI at 13:30pm. Happy trading!